Bitcoin recovers, but US Treasury yields above 5% hold back gains
Bitcoin is recovering from its September slide, but US Treasury yields above 5% are competing hard with risk assets. In a note dated September 28, Binance Research analysts Moulik Nagesh and Ken Lam pointed to three signals in favour of further gains, while naming pressure from long-term bonds as the main obstacle.
September brought sharp swings. On September 15 the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on crypto market structure, rejecting a procedural vote 49 to 50. Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 the same day, CoinDesk reported. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4%, its first hike since 2023. Bitcoin rose above $86,000 on September 21, then pulled back to around $84,000.
Pressure from long-term bonds
Binance Research says pressure at the long end of the yield curve now matters more for bitcoin than the Fed’s decision itself. On September 23 Brent crude rose to $103.08 a barrel, and US business activity data came in stronger than expected. According to the note, after a weak 5-year Treasury auction markets put the odds of another hike in October at close to 70%, and the 10-year yield climbed to 5.17%.
Yields kept rising. The 10-year closed at 5.24% on September 28, Yahoo Finance reported, and reached 5.34% on October 1, above its 2007 peak and the highest since 2002, according to Reuters.
When US government bonds pay more than 5% a year in dollars, it is harder for investors to justify the risk of volatile assets, the analysts said.
Three signals in favour of gains
The first signal is in spot bitcoin ETFs. According to Binance Research, their cumulative outflows since the start of the year had reached $5.69 billion by July 13. On September 21 the funds took in $999 million, the largest daily inflow since October 6, 2025, according to SoSoValue. Inflows continued through the week, reaching $134 million on September 25.
The second: on September 20 bitcoin ended the week at $81,159, its first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since November 9, 2025. Holding above that line through the inflation and jobs data would be stronger confirmation.
The third: on September 8 the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day (a “golden cross”) after 293 days below it over the previous year. Binance Research compared the setup with 12 earlier crosses. Where the cross followed at least 150 days below the 200-day average, bitcoin’s peak gain over the following year ranged from roughly 100% to 600%. The analysts caution that the sample is small.
What comes next
On September 30 the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released August PCE inflation data and its third estimate of second-quarter GDP, revising growth up 0.7 percentage point to an annual rate of 2.2%. In Binance Research’s scenarios, an upward GDP revision is negative for bitcoin, as it strengthens the case for another rate hike. The next test is US employment data for September, due on October 2 at 16:30 Yerevan time. Strong job growth would also fit the negative scenario, while softer inflation and employment data would support the recovery.
