Russia and three Eurasian Economic Union partners warn Armenia of a 15.6% GDP loss if its membership is suspended
Suspending the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Treaty for Armenia could cut the country’s GDP by 15.6%, or $4.6 billion, raise inflation by 14.9 percentage points and reduce consumption by 14.6% ($3.5 billion). The estimates are set out in a report prepared by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, Armenia’s partners in the five-member trade bloc, and published on the Russian government’s website.
The report follows a joint statement by the four countries’ presidents on May 29, 2026, and is due to be presented to the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December. The statement responded to Armenia’s steps towards EU membership, including the law on launching Armenia’s EU accession process, adopted by parliament on March 26, 2025. The calculations assume Armenia remains a full member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
According to the report, Armenia’s goods trade with EAEU countries reached $7.99 billion in 2025, or 37.8% of its total goods trade. A suspension would shrink it by 55.6% to $3.55 billion. Exports to the EAEU would fall 65.8%, from $3.17 billion to $1.08 billion. Shipments of traditional export goods would drop by an average of 39.6% ($622.5 million), including 50.1% for alcoholic beverages and 39.9% for food and agricultural products. Exports of goods linked to re-export flows would decline 91.6%, from $1.6 billion to $135 million.
Imports from the EAEU would decrease 48.8%, from $4.82 billion to $2.47 billion. The authors assume a price of $300 per 1,000 cubic metres for gas from EAEU countries, compared with the current $177.5 (an increase of about 69%). At the same volumes, Armenia’s gas import bill would grow by $268.5 million to $657.5 million.
Services trade with the EAEU would contract 37.7%, from $2.08 billion to $1.3 billion. In 2025, 126.9 thousand Armenian citizens worked in other EAEU countries, 124.6 thousand of them in Russia. With the EAEU labour migration regime no longer applying, remittances from the bloc would fall from $3.95 billion to $1.85 billion.
The report also forecasts lower trade with third countries, as the EAEU’s free trade agreements would stop applying to Armenia. Exports of goods and services outside the EAEU would drop 33.9%, from $10.06 billion to $6.65 billion. Overall, Armenia’s exports of goods and services would shrink by 41.6% ($6 billion).
For the other members, the report puts the impact at less than 1%. Russia’s exports of goods and services would decline 0.55% and its imports 0.65%. The report states that the four countries are not interested in Armenia leaving the EAEU.
According to the report, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, presenting the government’s 2026–2031 programme in parliament on August 24, 2026, stated that Armenia would likely soon begin the process of submitting a formal EU membership application. He added that a referendum on choosing between the EU and the EAEU would be held after the EU responds to the application and a roadmap emerges.
