Central Bank: AI factories could lift Armenia’s GDP potential growth to 6.9%

The development of large-scale AI computing infrastructure in Armenia could have a significant impact on investment, external trade, electricity demand, and the economy’s productive capacity in the coming years.

The assessment appears in the Monetary Policy Report for the third quarter of 2026, published by the Central Bank of Armenia on 15 September 2026 as part of the documentation accompanying the policy rate decision. The rate was set at 6.75%.

Of the two AI factories now operating in the country, Eleveight AI runs on NVIDIA Blackwell B300 graphics processors, with first-phase investment of around USD 70 million. The Firebird AI Factory project is being carried out by Firebird together with Team Group, NVIDIA and Dell Technologies, within an investment programme of around USD 500 million.

Total investment associated with these projects amounts to around USD 500 million, the Central Bank document states, while exports during the operational phase could reach around 0.6–1.0% of GDP. Under the announced expansion plans, installed computing capacity could increase from the current level of around 6,000 GPUs to 50,000–70,000 GPUs or more, while continuous power demand could rise from around 15–18 MW to 300–400 MW, implying potentially much larger macroeconomic effects.

The Central Bank sets out the project’s macroeconomic impact separately for the construction and operational phases, and identifies three illustrative scenarios for the economy’s long-run potential growth.

Export-enclave scenario. The project could operate as a highly capital-intensive, export-oriented production enclave, with limited employment effects and limited interaction with other sectors of the economy. In this case, the additional effect on potential growth is driven mainly by capital investment undertaken within the project itself and gradually weakens after the investment phase is completed, while the broader productivity effect remains limited. Consequently, during the period of intensive capital accumulation, higher GDP growth may reflect an expansion in the economy’s productive capacity, in which case its inflationary effects may be comparatively more limited.

Partial-integration scenario. Firebird’s activities could stimulate investment in related sectors, particularly electricity, grid and digital infrastructure, as well as the development of local technical, data-management, cybersecurity and other specialised services. In this case, the impact extends beyond the project’s own capital stock, although productivity gains remain concentrated mainly in sectors directly linked to Firebird.

AI-cluster scenario. Infrastructure, skills and specialised capabilities developed around Firebird gradually spread to broader segments of the economy, supporting the development of new technology firms and an AI ecosystem, deeper research and educational linkages, and broader adoption of AI applications. In this case, the project’s impact is not limited to capital accumulation in related sectors: broader and more persistent growth in total factor productivity also emerges, resulting in a more durable impact on potential growth.

The Central Bank concludes that Firebird’s potential macroeconomic impact will depend not only on the project’s announced scale, but also on its sources of financing, import intensity, ownership structure, the capacity of the energy system, and the depth of its integration into the Armenian economy. In the short term, the project may primarily take the form of an investment–import shock; during the operational phase, of a service-export and electricity-demand shock; while over the longer term, the main uncertainty relates to the extent to which capital accumulation translates into productivity gains and higher potential growth.

Photo: Ministry of High-Tech Industry and Artificial Intelligence of Armenia